Washington, Oct 5 (IANS) The Iran conflict could continue through the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term and be inherited by his successor, a former senior White House Middle East official warned, as the Trump administration said it was simultaneously pursuing diplomatic and military pressure on Tehran and preparing for further contingencies.
Brett McGurk, who served as President Joe Biden’s coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, said he saw no clear path towards a comprehensive settlement with Iran and predicted an extended period of economic pressure, intermittent military exchanges and possible temporary ceasefires.
“If I had to make a prediction, this is going to go on through the end of Trump’s presidency, and it’ll go into — the next president will have to deal with this chronic problem of Iran that has — every president has really dealt with this revolutionary system since Jimmy Carter,” McGurk told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.
“It’s been a perennial problem. I’ve dealt with it now, you know, across administrations,” he said.
McGurk said the Middle East had undergone a “fundamental” shift in its balance of power since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.
He pointed to two subsequent military campaigns involving Iran, including Operation Midnight Hammer against Iranian nuclear infrastructure and the conflict that began on February 28 this year.
McGurk said one concern was that the latest conflict began with what he described as an open-ended regime-change objective.
“And once you go down that road, you can find yourself very much trapped in kind of how you actually wind it down,” he said.
McGurk said he could not see an endgame unless Iran’s political system fundamentally changed its character and policies or eventually came apart.
“But again, that is going to be, I think, way down the road,” he said.
For now, McGurk predicted a prolonged confrontation.
“So, I think we are in this period and it’s going to last for some time. Serious economic pressure. You’ll have occasional tit-for-tat military exchanges. You might have occasional interim cease fire deals, interim agreements,” he said.
A comprehensive nuclear settlement appeared even more difficult, McGurk said.
He suggested decision-makers in Tehran were likely to view Iran’s status as a threshold nuclear state as their ultimate deterrent.
“And so, getting that deal on the nuclear side it is going to be really hard,” he said.
McGurk’s assessment came as Energy Secretary Chris Wright said separately that the Trump administration was keeping both military and diplomatic tracks open.
Appearing on CBS News’ “Face the Nation”, Wright was asked about reports that the United States was sending additional defensive equipment to Gulf countries to protect oil infrastructure and that a third carrier strike group was heading to the region.
“Look, the president has – has taken a strong stand that Iran, the world’s greatest terrorist regime – regime, cannot and will not have nuclear weapons,” Wright said.
“So, of course, we’re looking at every avenue to achieve that goal, economically, to be prepared for what comes militarily.”
“But we cannot pass to the next administration an Iran armed with nuclear weapons,” he said.
Asked whether Trump had decided to escalate after Election Day, when the third carrier strike group was expected to arrive, Wright declined to disclose the President’s plans.
“Oh, I’m definitely not going to get in front of the president’s plans or policies,” he said.
Wright said Trump was “always planning for contingencies and he’s always negotiating.”
Asked whether that meant both diplomatic and military pressure remained active, Wright replied: “Of course, of course, at all times.”
The conflict is also posing an increasingly difficult energy challenge for the administration.
Wright acknowledged there could be no guarantee against another disruption affecting Gulf oil infrastructure.
“There’s no guarantees. There’s no guarantees in conflict. There’s no guarantees in life,” he said.
He nevertheless predicted lower gasoline and diesel prices in the coming weeks, citing increasing supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, record US gasoline production and declining demand after the summer driving season.
“Absolutely. Diesel prices have been going down. Gasoline prices have been going down. I expect that to continue,” Wright said.
Wright said Trump had been aware when making decisions on Iran that they could drive energy prices higher.
“If his decisions were political, he would have just kicked the can down the road and delivered a nuclear-armed Iran to the next president,” Wright said.
“He knew it was going to elevate energy prices in the short run. He said, I’m going to take a hit there, but I got to do the right thing.”
Wright said Trump was “well aware” of the risks to energy flows from the Persian Gulf.
The political consequences of the conflict were also prominent across the Sunday talk shows, with the midterm elections just a month away.
According to US media’s latest polling, nine in 10 voters believed the Iran conflict was making US gas and oil prices either a lot or a little higher.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said prices and the Iran war were affecting Republican candidates, while ABC highlighted a Quinnipiac poll showing 28 per cent of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the war and 66 per cent disapproved.
The political impact is particularly visible in military communities.
ABC focused on Virginia’s Second Congressional District, anchored by Virginia Beach and close to the world’s largest naval base at Norfolk, where Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and former Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, both Navy veterans, are competing for the seat.
Kiggans has strongly supported the military campaign.
“I couldn’t be a stauncher supporter of the action that we’re taking against Iran,” she said.
Luria, by contrast, is campaigning against Kiggans’ support for the war.
Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly also sharply attacked the administration’s handling of the conflict.
“Ending this war in Iran that he started without a – any kind of a strategic goal or a plan has jacked up prices for the American people. Ending that would help,” Kelly said.
Kelly, a former Navy pilot and astronaut, also criticised Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s management of the war, saying the United States had attacked more than 15,000 targets and depleted munitions.
“This thing has been a disaster because the secretary of defense has no idea what he’s doing,” Kelly said.
He accused the administration of entering another war “without a plan and without explaining – explaining to the American people, what are we going to get out of this?”
Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, appearing on NBC, also acknowledged the domestic economic impact of the war.
“The inflation, disinflation, did not originate in a bat. Started under President Biden. It’s reared its ugly head under President Trump because of the war in Iran,” Kennedy said.
“Once we settle the war in Iran, those prices will come down.”
–IANS
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